Ukraine's Port Industry in the First Quarter of 2026

Brief conclusion

In the first quarter of 2026, Ukraine's port industry continued to operate under conditions of full-scale war and targeted Russian strikes against port infrastructure, while maintaining basic functionality. Ukrainian seaports handled more than 21 million tonnes of cargo and fulfilled 98% of the planned cargo turnover target, despite regular attacks and the constant risk to shipping.

Cargo flow remains predominantly raw-material based: grain accounts for the main share; products of the mining and metallurgical complex are gradually recovering from low levels; the container segment shows high relative growth but remains small in volume and largely reflects imports and supplies for a wartime economy, rather than an expansion of exports. Amid the war in the Middle East and rising global food prices, Ukraine potentially benefits as a grain supplier, but this effect is limited by the rising cost of agricultural production, increased logistics costs and the constant threat of new Russian strikes against ports.

1. General results of the first quarter of 2026

In January-March 2026, the country's seaports handled 21.1 million tonnes of cargo, fulfilling 98% of the planned transshipment volume.

At the same time, cargo turnover in the first quarter of 2026 was 8.3% lower than in the first quarter of 2025. With the high base of 2025 as a backdrop — when a jump in exports was observed after the stabilization of the Ukrainian maritime corridor — the current result looks like normalization under wartime conditions, rather than a collapse of the industry.

In 2025, the annual cargo turnover of Ukrainian seaports amounted to around 81.7 million tonnes, which was 15.9% less than in 2024. Against this background, maintaining more than 21 million tonnes in the first quarter of 2026 under constant strikes on infrastructure can be regarded as confirmation of the system's basic resilience. Nevertheless, transshipment volumes are directly tied to the state of the economy, including the performance of the agricultural and mining-metallurgical sectors.

2. Structure of cargo flow

The main volume of transshipment in Ukrainian ports still consists of grain and other agricultural cargoes. According to estimates, in the first quarter of 2026 more than 11.6 million tonnes of grain passed through Ukraine's seaports, which represents more than half of total cargo turnover. This confirms that port infrastructure primarily serves agricultural exports, which remain a key source of foreign currency revenue for a country at war.

Such concentration creates a dual effect: on the one hand, stable external demand for Ukrainian grain and the existence of the maritime corridor make it possible to maintain exports even under wartime conditions; on the other hand, the port industry remains extremely vulnerable to disruptions precisely in this segment (harvest, global prices, blockade or disturbances in the operation of maritime routes).

The mining and metallurgical sector has been severely affected by Russian strikes on industrial, energy and transport facilities, but it plays an important role in the structure of port cargo flow. In the first quarter of 2026, Ukrainian ports transshipped around 3.3 million tonnes of ores and 1.2 million tonnes of metal products.

This is a relatively small volume compared with pre-war years, but its presence shows that part of production capacity has adapted to wartime conditions, and export chains have been partially restored. For the port industry, this means some diversification relative to a purely agricultural model, but a full balance in the export structure has yet to be achieved.

Maritime imports of fuels and lubricants, mineral fertilizers and other goods play a significant role, but volumes are not published in open sources.

Container transportation in the first quarter of 2026 demonstrated high rates of relative growth. Ports handled more than 63,000 TEU, which is 43% higher than in the first quarter of 2025. However, the absolute volume of container traffic remains a small share of total cargo turnover, and a significant portion of container traffic represents imports.

Summary table of the structure in the first quarter of 2026

3. Security issues: Russian strikes against ports

The key risk factor for Ukrainian ports is Russia's targeted military aggression. The Russian armed forces systematically carry out missile and drone strikes against ports, coastal infrastructure, energy facilities and transport hubs connected with maritime logistics.

During January-March 2026, more than 11 Russian air attacks against port infrastructure were recorded — almost as many as during the whole of 2025. The tactics of the strikes shifted from mass attacks on energy infrastructure to targeted strikes on logistics hubs, including port infrastructure facilities, elevators, terminals and access routes.

Western media also record an increase in the intensity of Russian attacks on Ukraine's shipping routes and ports in the Black Sea, emphasizing that this is a deliberate attempt to disrupt the export of grain and other goods. Judging by the nature of the selected targets and statements by Russian officials, these attacks are part of the war against Ukraine aimed at limiting the country's ability to finance its resistance.

Despite regular strikes, Ukrainian ports continue to operate:

• damage to infrastructure is, where possible, repaired promptly;
• cargo flows are switched between terminals and ports, including through Danube port capacity;
• efforts are coordinated among the military, state authorities and port operators to minimize the consequences of attacks and forced downtime.

Achieving 98% of planned targets despite Russian strikes occurring on average several times a week demonstrates the system's adaptability and resilience.

Since September 2023, the Ukrainian maritime corridor has been operational, allowing a significant part of the export flow through the Black Sea to be restored despite threats from the Russian fleet and aviation. Since its launch, around 190 million tonnes of cargo have been transported through this corridor, a significant part of which consists of grain.

In the first quarter of 2026, most maritime cargo turnover falls on the ports of the Odesa region — Odesa, Chornomorsk and Pivdennyi — which provide the main part of transportation through the corridor. The Danube ports (Reni, Izmail and others) continue to play the role of an important reserve route, making it possible to partially compensate for risks associated with a possible escalation of threats in the Black Sea.

This configuration — Black Sea ports as the main export channel and the Danube as a flexible reserve — has become a key factor in preserving Ukraine's export capacity under the military pressure of the aggressor.

4. External background: war in the Middle East and food markets

The external environment for Ukrainian agricultural exports and the port industry by the end of the first quarter of 2026 is further complicated by war and tensions in the Middle East. According to estimates by the FAO and other international organizations:

• the global food price index is rising for the second month in a row and in March 2026 reached its highest level since September 2025;
• the main factors behind the growth are the increase in the cost of energy resources, fertilizers, and logistics disruptions and risks;
• if the conflict continues to drag on, rising global food prices may persist.

For Ukraine, this creates a double-edged situation:

• on the one hand, rising global prices for grain commodities create potential for greater export revenue;
• on the other hand, the increase in the cost of agricultural production amid shortages and rising prices for fuel and mineral fertilizers, as well as the increase in freight and insurance costs on risky routes, reduce the profitability of Ukrainian agricultural exports and limit the real gains from high global prices.

As of the end of the first quarter of 2026, the impact of the Middle Eastern conflict on Ukrainian port statistics manifests primarily as a secondary factor. The main factor for Ukrainian ports remains the war with Russia and the resilience of the Ukrainian maritime corridor; global price and geopolitical trends operate on top of these basic constraints.

5. Main risks and scenarios for 2026

Taking into account the situation that has developed, several key groups of risks for Ukraine's port industry can be identified through the end of 2026:

5.1. Military risk (Russia):

• an increase in the frequency and destructive force of strikes on ports, terminals, energy facilities and access routes;
• attempts by Russia to disrupt the operation of the Ukrainian maritime corridor and restrict the entry of vessels into Ukrainian ports.

5.2. Logistics and insurance risk:

• rising insurance premiums and changes in coverage conditions for vessels entering Ukrainian ports;
• increase in freight rates amid elevated risk;
• limited internal transport capacities (railway, road logistics) due to infrastructure damage.

5.3. Market and price risk:

• high volatility of global prices for agricultural products; decline in prices for products of the mining and metallurgical complex;
• possible changes in the policies of key importing countries (quotas, restrictions, subsidies to domestic producers);
• influence of the further development of wars and conflicts on global food and energy markets.

On this basis, two basic scenarios can be described conditionally:

• Scenario of maintaining the current level of pressure:
  Russian attacks on port infrastructure remain approximately at the current frequency; the maritime corridor remains operational; insurance and freight are expensive but available. In this case, annual cargo turnover may be comparable with 2025, with a similar raw-material structure and limited growth in the mining-metallurgical and container segments.

• Scenario of intensified pressure:
  Russia sharply increases the number and scale of attacks on ports, and additional restrictions are imposed by insurers and shipowners. In that case, a noticeable fall in maritime transshipment volumes is possible, along with redistribution of part of the cargo to the Danube and land routes, growth of costs and a decline in export margins.

6. Final conclusions

6.1. Ports operate in a mode of military survival, not business.

The result of the first quarter of 2026 was achieved not in a peaceful market environment, but under regular targeted Russian strikes against port infrastructure. This is a mode of "resilience under fire", not a normal business cycle.

6.2. The structure of cargo flow remains raw-material based and military.

Grain cargoes form the core of exports; products of the mining and metallurgical complex occupy a significant niche; containers, despite growth, serve imports.

6.3. Russia is the direct and main source of systemic risk.

Strikes by the Russian armed forces on ports, energy facilities and transport hubs are the central source of uncertainty for the industry. Export volumes and Ukraine's ability to support the economy and the army directly depend on the intensity and success of these attacks.

6.4. The external background adds turbulence, but does not determine the outcome.

The war in the Middle East and rising global food prices increase the importance of Ukrainian agricultural exports, but at the same time push up the cost of agricultural production and products of the mining and metallurgical complex, logistics and insurance. The main line of tension for Ukrainian ports runs along the "Ukraine-Russia" axis, not via the Middle East.

6.5. Ports are a strategic military and economic resource.

Maritime logistics for Ukraine in 2026 is a crucial component of the ability to wage war against the aggressor and survive as a state. Export revenue, imports of the most important goods, as well as the stability of the internal market and the home front depend on maintaining the operation of the ports.